empty desk

A: Do you know where John is?

B: No, I don't. He might be on a break.

Certainty

If we are less than 100% certain about a situation, we can use modal verbs to show our level of certainty:

100% certain

He is on a break.

 
Almost 100% certain

He must be on a break.

He has to be on a break.

He's got to be on a break.

Must means you are very sure, but not 100%.

Although not modal verbs, have to and have got to can be used as the same meaning of must, especially in American English.

Uncertain

He may be on a break.

He might be on a break.

He could be on a break.

May, might, and could are used to say that you are unsure.

eating a burger

He must be hungry. He hasn't eaten anything all day.

bag

She has to be here. That's her bag and coat.

students

She has to go home early. She might have to do her homework still.

In negative situations, we say the following:

100% certain

He isn't here.

 

Almost 100% certain

He can't be here.

Can't is commonly used to express a strong certainty that something is impossible. 

Uncertain

He may not be here.

He might not be here.

May not and might not express uncertainty. Notice could is not used for this meaning.
students in school

She joined the school this morning, so she can't know the rules of the school yet.

guy

You said Joe was Canadian, but he speaks English with an Irish accent. He can't be Canadian.

ESL students

Jose may not understand what you are saying. His English is not as good as mine.


Continuous Forms


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